It’s here! After months of campaigns and interviews and thinkpieces over what movies got wrong about history as if they were transcripts from an FBI cabinet, it’s finally here! And not a moment too soon. For the first time in (seemingly) years, many of the major Oscar categories are genuinely up-for-grabs. Which name will Cate Blanchette call out when she presents the award for Best Actor on Sunday; Michael Keaton or Eddie Redmayne? Will Birdman upset Boyhood in the race for Best Picture? Or will their first place votes be split, enabling American Sniper or Selma to take the top spot? And all those technical categories, what’s up with those? What is sound mixing anyway?
Thankfully, you can trust your Oscar ballot to me, a man who regularly gets 15 to 16 winners out of the possible 24 every year. Like along of this year’s honorees, that’s perfectly adequate. So let’s get to the picks and find out who will be taking home the gold on Sunday!
Best Sound Mixing
- American Sniper
- Birdman
- Interstellar
- Unbroken
- Whiplash
The sad truth is that, outside of student films, sound mixing is expertly crafted in nearly every film, so it’s very hard to distinguish good sound mixing from the best sound mixing in any particular year. As a result, this category features many token nominations for either the Best Picture contenders (a la Birdman and American Sniper) or the blockbuster films that keep the lights on in Hollywood (like Interstellar). However, there is one glaring outlier in this group, and that’s the independent production Whiplash. With its stirring integration of music into the story and soundtrack, it would not be nominated if it did not have a favorable chance of winning, so I would safely place my bet there.
Best Sound Editing
- American Sniper
- Birdman
- The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
- Interstellar
- Unbroken
Ah, that’s more like it. As I said, this category is reserved for bolstering the number of nominations for Best Picture candidates and blockbusters, with the statuette usually going to the biggest blockbuster with the most noticeable sound effects. In this case, it would be The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies. However, Interstellar is another strong contender in this field with its adherence to the absence of sound in the vacuum of space. The Academy already noted that achievement by granting the Sound Editing and Sound Mixing awards to Gravity last year, so I think they will stick with Oscar tradition (as they are wont to do) and award this category to the classy and uplifting Interstellar, instead of those fantasy weirdos from New Zealand. Who cares about twelve years ago? What have you done for me lately?
Best Visual Effects
- Captain America: The Winter Soldier
- Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
- Guardians of the Galaxy
- Interstellar
- X-Men: Days of Future Past
Although I was more astonished the seamless integration of digital creatures alongside humans in Guardians of the Galaxy and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, the replication of untouched intergalactic lands in Interstellar (incorporating real locations in Iceland and Canada) make it a frontrunner in this contentious category. Either way, I think most mainstream audiences will be pleased by whoever wins.
Best Live Action Short Film
- Aya
- Boogaloo and Graham
- Butter Lamp
- Parvaneh
- The Phone Call
As an English major, I like to tout my analytical skills and point out connections and relationships where they’re usually are none. So while many find this category to be unpredictable, I would like to point out that – a few years ago – I noticed a pretty clear pattern in previous winners. Most honorees in this unknowable category follow two key criteria; 1) they have the longest runtime compared to the other nominees and 2) they feature of known, recognizable actors. And since The Phone Call has an advantage in both those areas (with its 20-minute runtime and a cast that includes Oscar-nominee Sally Hawkins and Oscar-winner Jim Broadbent), it’s the clear frontrunner. However, Aya lasts an astonishing 40 minutes (nearly qualifying it for feature length), so consider it a dark horse.
Best Animated Short Film
- “The Bigger Picture”
- “The Dam Keeper”
- “Feast”
- “Me and My Moulton”
- “A Single Life”
As I will explain later in these predictions, a key element toward garnering an Oscar nomination and victory is exposure. In this particular group, the short “Feast” holds a clear advantage over the competition because it played before Big Hero 6 in theaters. It also has the benefit of being produced by the same crew behind the 2012 winner in this category, “Paperman”. These qualities make it the obvious winner, right?
Wrong! While this film was produced by the same filmmakers who won two years ago, they are backed by Walt Disney Pictures, the enormous, faceless corporation that already has enough accolades and billions of dollars to its name. Also, having seen the film in theaters, I fear that with its lack of a score and somewhat flat direction in moments, it just isn’t as strong as “Paperman”. And with practically the same style, it would feel like honoring a sequel instead of an original vision (although we’ll see how that plays out later in the Best Animated Feature category). With those thoughts in mind, I think “The Dam Keeper”, an equally joyful and more visually distinctive film, will take home the gold.
Best Short Documentary
- “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1”
- “Joanna”
- “Our Curse”
- “The Reaper”
- “White Earth”
Much like the feature-length documentary category, you would assume that many Academy voters would pick a winner based on the issue instead of the quality of the filmmaking. You would be correct in that assumption, which would make “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1” (about a emergency phoneline for American servicemen overseas) a clear favorite. However, while the intent is noble, the quality of the filmmaking may not be up to snuff, which is why I anticipate “Joanna” (about a Polish woman chronicling her cancer treatment via social media) to make more an impact with voters.
Best Feature Documentary
- Citizenfour
- Finding Vivian Maier
- Last Days in Vietnam
- The Salt of the Earth
- Virunga
First, a special commendation must be made for Virunga, which is being distributed by Netflix. Over the years, the Academy has been resistant to qualifying films released on digital platforms, but a nomination for Virunga may signal a change in that thinking and an acceptance of films in all distribution formats. However, that doesn’t mean it’s going to win. Far from it, in fact. With its near capturing of history in real time, the chronicling of Edward Snowden in Citizenfour make in the obvious frontrunner and one of the surest bets of the night. In fact, don’t bet on it Vegas. You’ll lose money. That’s how they get ya.
Best Foreign Language Film
- Ida
- Leviathan
- Tangerines
- Timbuktu
- Wild Tales
Like the Best Feature Documentary category, this award is often the subject of consternation, but not just because of the issues at stake. Rather, the nature of how this accolade is chosen, with only one nominee per nation and a small committee within the Academy choosing a winner, often leaves out many worthy candidates from the past year (for instance, Force Majeure and Two Days, One Night). However, political and societal issues will still factor into this category, as Ida addresses the Holocaust and religious identity, while Leviathan examines modern-day Russia under the rule of Putin. That said, I do get the feeling that the more optimistic Tangerines will win over their cold, speckled hearts of voters and earn some first-place votes. However, there is a clear signal that one of these films stands above the rest in voters’ minds; the film Ida was nominated in another category this year (Best Cinematography). It’s not often that a foreign language film garners more than one nomination and does not take home the prize here, so Ida should be the winner.
Best Animated Feature
- Big Hero 6
- The Boxtrolls
- How to Train Your Dragon 2
- Song of the Sea
- The Tale of Princess Kaguya
Outside of Selma, no other Oscar snub earned more ire than the exclusion of The Lego Movie from this category. But as the snobby expert that I purport to be, I can’t say I’m surprised. I mean, let’s remember that the average age of an Academy member is 63-years-old. The Lego Movie was a tad overwhelming and hyperactive even for me. Imagine the amount of cranial blood vessels this film’s unrelenting energy was going to burst for your average elderly citizen or Academy member. You can see how it wouldn’t appeal to their tastes.
In any event, the much gentler How to Train Your Dragon 2 will win the day here, even though it is a sequel and didn’t achieve the same financial success as its predecessor. That could leave the door open for Big Hero 6 or a real underdog like The Tale of Princess Kaguya, but after its victory at the Golden Globes, I don’t see how it can lose.
Best Original Song
- Begin Again – “Lost Stars”
- Beyond the Lights – “Grateful”
- Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me – “I’m Not Gonna Miss You”
- The Lego Movie – “Everything is Awesome”
- Selma – “Glory”
Fans of The Lego Movie will have more tears to dry when this category comes up. Although “Everything is Awesome” was the most infectious of the nominees and will be performed by The Lonely Island at this year’s ceremony, a vote against “Glory” in Selma literally feels like a vote against civil rights. That’s not to say the song doesn’t merit the award. But unlike Best Picture and other categories, there’s no way getting around the white guilt with this one.
Best Original Score
- Alexandre Desplat – The Imitation Game
- Alexandre Desplat – The Grand Budapest Hotel
- Jóhann Jóhannsson – The Theory of Everything
- Gary Yershon – Mr Turner
- Hans Zimmer – Interstellar
If you follow the Oscars year after year, it’s obvious that Academy plays favorites with people in the industry. How else do you explain Meryl Streep receiving a nomination for six of the last eight years? But of her 19 nominations, the Academy has at least deigned to give her three awards in that time. Meanwhile, Alexandre Desplat, who has gotten eight nominations in the last eight years, has yet to take home a statuette. And I’m sorry to say that this year will continue the Academy’s senseless tease of the poor Frenchmen. Jóhann Jóhannsson‘s beautiful score for The Theory of Everything will take home the gold this time, leaving Desplat to wallow in his millions of dollars and myriad of BAFTAs and Golden Globes. You can always run back to their arms when the Academy says you should just be friends, Alex.
Best Costume Design
- Milena Canonero – The Grand Budapest Hotel
- Mark Bridges – Inherent Vice
- Colleen Atwood – Into the Woods
- Anna B. Sheppard – Maleficent
- Jacqueline Durran – Mr Turner
For a film released last March, the nine nominations for The Grand Budapest Hotel may have surprised many Oscar prognosticators. But those nods were not only the result of aggressive campaigning from Fox Searchlight. They also come from these technical categories, as The Grand Budapest Hotel was certainly one of the most designed movie of the year (and not necessarily the best).
The film’s setting across three time periods certainly give it an advantage, but I think the award will go to Anna B. Sheppard for Maleficent for two important reasons. For one, Angelina Jolie’s costume in that film does stand out more than any of the other nominees, giving it a memorable quality for voters. Also, Ms. Sheppard is the only nominee in this field that has not won this award before (or the case of Atwood and Canonero, won multiple times). I have a feeling the communist instincts of the Academy will grant this year’s award to some (relatively) fresh blood in Sheppard. Way to go, lady!
Best Production Design
- The Grand Budapest Hotel
- The Imitation Game
- Interstellar
- Into the Woods
- Mr Turner
Here, though, the obvious frontrunner in this technical category will get its due. The oppressive colorfulness of The Grand Budapest Hotel and its various dollhouse-esque settings will impose its will on voters, particularly over the wheel-and-wire aesthetics of The Imitation Game and Interstellar. Personally, though, I do like the recreation of some 19th century galleries in Mr Turner, but that nomination is sadly small and token in light of its mostly studio-backed competition.
Best Editing
- Sandra Adair – Boyhood
- William Goldenberg – The Imitation Game
- Barney Pilling – The Grand Budapest Hotel
- Tom Cross – Whiplash
- Joel Cox, Gary Roach – American Sniper
Like most of the other forgotten categories, this award often goes to the film with the most editing rather than the best. This means that action flicks and thrillers usually win the day here, giving The Imitation Game, Whiplash, and American Sniper a clear advantage. Although, the effort required to stitch together 12 years (my God, we’ve gotten through 1,600 words in an Oscar column without mentioning that it took 12 years to make Boyhood!) could give Sandra Adair a slight edge. However, the thrills generated by Tom Cross and the aggressive editing in Whiplash will garner the award this time. But Adair may pull out the victory, and Boyhood needs some more awards if it expects to take home the big one.
Best Cinematography
- Roger Deakins – Unbroken
- Ryszard Lenczewski, Lukaz Zal – Ida
- Emmanuel Lubezki – Birdman
- Dick Pope – Mr Turner
- Robert D. Yeoman – The Grand Budapest Hotel
If Alexandre Desplat is perpetually a bridesmaid, than Roger Deakins has been left at the altar too many times to count. Arguably a greater cinematographer than Desplat is a composer, Deakins has photographed such classic films as The Shawshank Redemption, Fargo, No Country for Old Men, and The Assassination of Jesse James, been nominated a total of 12 times, and still has yet to take home one Oscar for this sterling work. And like the similarly put-upon Desplat, this still isn’t his year. The seemingly single take in Birdman as composed by Emmanuel Lubezki is the obvious winner. Heck, Lubezki won this award last year by pulling similar tricks in Gravity, and the photography in Birdman is arguably more impressive.
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Paul Thomas Anderson – Inherent Vice
- Damien Chazelle – Whiplash
- Jason Hall – American Sniper
- Anthony McCarten – The Theory of Everything
- Graham Moore – The Imitation Game
Like the Best Live Action Short Film category (which, somewhat controversially, is why Damien Chazelle’s screenplay is here because it’s based on his own short), there are certain criteria for choosing a winner in the writing categories. One is singularity; Academy voters typically reserve these categories for films that are considered too outre, unusual or outside mainstream tastes. And they cling that idea by honoring a solely-credited writer instead of a team of working stiffs. It’s why Geoffrey Fletcher won this award for Precious over frontrunners Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner in 2009. This year, however, no one nominee can lay claim to that advantage since all of them are solely credited nominees.
But there is another important piece to taking home an Oscar in writing, and that’s pedigree. Woody Allen, Quentin Tarantino, and Spike Jonze won for Best Original Screenplay the last three years for that reason (not that reason alone, obviously). And because five of his seven films have been nominated for Oscars (earning him six nominations of his own), and because he has taken on the herculean task of adapting an obtuse and illusive Thomas Pynchon novel for the big screen, I anticipate Paul Thomas Anderson taking home is first Academy Award for Inherent Vice. And although all of the other films have garnered more positive notices and accolades, nearly all of those writers are saddled with the inconvenience of history. We can take Graham Moore to task for not addressing Alan Turing’s homosexuality or suicide enough, or Anthony McCarten for not exploring the ultimate demise of Stephen and Jane Hawkings’ marriage, or Jason Hall for bolstering a morally questionable and proven liar Chris Kyle. Anderson, meanwhile, can just sit back and bask in a career well validated.
Best Original Screenplay
- Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness – The Grand Budapest Hotel
- E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman – Foxcatcher
- Dan Gilroy – Nightcrawler
- Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr., Armando Bo – Birdman
- Richard Linklater – Boyhood
Obviously, the award for original screenplay is a little thornier. Although Birdman remains the most distinctive film from this year, I doubt the Academy wants to put four guys up on stage on Sunday (especially for a director who is convinced it’s his singular vision). That only leaves the question of pedigree, which both Anderson and Linklater have. However, the notion of a singular vision (a 12-year-long vision at that) combined with the fact that Fox Searchlight can’t campaign for both Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel in the same category means that Richard Linklater takes it with Boyhood.
Best Director
- Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel
- Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman
- Richard Linklater – Boyhood
- Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher
- Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game
Again, which way will the Academy go? Will they honor 12 years worth of effort it took to make a coming-of-age tale, or the most unique vision among this year’s nominees? The Directors Guild already voted in Iñárritu’s favor. However, that guild is quite small compared to the entire Academy voting block. And if a win in the Best Original Screenplay category is any indication, they are more likely to honor 12 years of work in directing than they are for writing. So presumably, Richard Linklater and Boyhood will take this category as well, making Birdman‘s chances for Best Picture slimmer by the moment.
Best Supporting Actress
- Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
- Laura Dern – Wild
- Keira Knightly – The Imitation Game
- Emma Stone – Birdman
- Meryl Streep – Into the Woods
The inclusion of Meryl Streep in this category should tell you all you need to know about the dismal crop of supporting female roles this year. In fact, one of the main reasons that Patricia Arquette will win is because her performance technically should qualify as a leading role. But it’s better to split hairs and divide the awards evenly than to honor a performance that isn’t deserving. However, I did find Emma Stone to be worthy of this year’s accolade for her headstrong ways in Birdman. Speaking of which…
Best Supporting Actor
- Robert Duvall – The Judge
- Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
- Edward Norton – Birdman
- Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
- J.K. Simmons – Whiplash
Personally, I would also love to see Edward Norton appear onstage Sunday with an Oscar in-hand for his gonzo performance in Birdman. But c’mon, how are you not going to honor an old pro with over 500 small credits to his name? A guy versatile enough to play the cuddly elder Mac MacGuff in Juno and the thoroughly intense white supremacist Vern in “Oz”. Even if these awards are not supposed to represent a career achievement, J.K. Simmons deserves every smile and thumbs up from us moviegoers. Speaking of which! (Man, I should win an award for these segways.)
Best Actress
- Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night
- Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
- Julianne Moore – Still Alice
- Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
- Reese Witherspoon – Wild
While the merits of this performance are still contested, there is no denying that Julianne Moore is deserving of at least some recognition for her incredible work over the years. Granted, those years stretch from about 1993 to 2002, as she has not delivered anything memorable over the last 12 years as she did in her prime in the ’90s. That could be because of the absolute dearth of roles for older women in Hollywood these days, and after four previous nominations, it’s a not a stretch to say that some accolades are deserved (if a little belatedly).
Best Actor
- Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
- Bradley Cooper – American Sniper
- Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
- Michael Keaton – Birdman
- Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything
Oh man, this category’s too hot to handle! Just a few months ago, it looked like the Michael Keaton victory parade, with everyone validating the Hollywood veteran for overcoming the insurmountable odds of age and being a headlining star a few years ago to do something noble and artistically fulfilling (just like the character he plays!) But what’s this?! A young whippersnapper by the name of Eddie Redmayne delivers a gripping, physical performance as Stephen Hawking, and now he has the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and SAG under his belt. Which way will the Academy go?
For me, it’s not hard to look past the possible biases of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts for a young and upcoming English lad. I also can’t shake the notion that the Screen Actors Guide must of have known that Michael Keaton would’ve had a statuette in his hand for Best Ensemble Cast in Birdman. Does he really need two? In any event, peering into the minds of Academy voters suggests that they like what’s familiar, and there’s nothing more familiar than a Hollywood veteran reclaiming the limelight in some kind of “redemption” arch (although it’s not as if Keaton overcame impossible odds, he’s still gotten work since Batman Returns you know). So come Sunday, after a hard-fought twelve rounds, Michael Keaton beats Eddie Redmayne! Don’t worry though, kid. You’ve got years ahead of you of taking roles that James Franco is too busy for.
Best Picture
- American Sniper
- Birdman
- Boyhood
- The Grand Budapest Hotel
- The Imitation Game
- Selma
- The Theory of Everything
- Whiplash
I would like to announce – as I usually do every year – how happy I am to see a diverse offering of movies represented in the Best Picture category. But that simply isn’t the case this year. In fact, half of the nominees profile great but complicated men (only one of them of color) during trials mostly centered around violence. Just like the summer blockbuster season, awards season has also been overwhelmed by the cynicism of making art towards an end instead of for art’s sake. Right now, a billboard on Santa Monica Blvd. in Los Angeles advertising The Imitation Game ardently demands that you “Honor the Man, Honor the Film”, demonstrating its sole purpose is to win awards from industry workers rather than be enjoyed by general audiences. And whatever consternation arose out of the exclusion of Selma in many categories had nothing to do with racism. It was just business; it’s distributor simply didn’t generate a big enough release or provide enough screeners for award consideration. It’s difficult to get overjoyed for the year in movies when most the effort culminates in a petty fight for egos and accolades.
But what we’re left with at the end of this sour state of affairs is two distinct visions that would stand out in any year; Birdman and Boyhood. The 12-year opus by Richard Linklater has been high on critics’ minds ever since it premiered over a year ago at the Sundance Film Festival. Meanwhile, Alejandro González Iñárritu delivered a tour de force this fall that may be one of the most visually distinctive and best acted film of the last decade. In all honesty, there should be no choosing between them because it’s pointless for art to compete for our entertainment. But because it is so fun, we have a pick a winner. And one of these films has two distinct advantages that will earn it the coveted award Sunday night.
A lot of Oscar predictions are centered around the unique voting process for Best Picture. Instead of picking one winner, voters rank the nominees from favorite to least favorite, and the films accumulate points based on where they appear in order on each ballot. Like the electoral college, the film that has received the most second or third place votes could still win based on its point total. So if Boyhood and Birdman split many first-place votes, films near the top of the ballot, like American Sniper, Selma, and The Grand Budapest Hotel, could accumulate the most points. But if Linklater and Iñárritu’s films aren’t at the top of everyone’s ballot, where are they going to appear instead? Presumably, the relatively gentle, sentimental Boyhood would be second or third on many ballots, while the darker, more challenging Birdman could fall as far down as fourth or fifth.
There’s another important question to consider; after a winner is announced, who accepts the award for Best Picture? It isn’t the lead actor or actress or director or screenwriter. It’s the producers. And all through this award season, Linklater and the his fellow honorees have been immediately and expressly thankful to producers Cathleen Sunderland, John Sloss, and Jonathan Sehring for their faith, finances, and support over twelve years. So come Sunday, Academy voters will be more than happy to reward all of their hard work and good faith in bringing Boyhood to life. It’s been a perfect cycle for this film. A premiere in January at one of the nation’s top film festivals, a release this summer to universal acclaim, and finally an award this winter to validate the artistic endeavor that shows what can be achieved with film.
What Old White Men Think 